German Soccer (Dec.

Bumipol · Dec 8, 2006

YTD: 12-8
1*: 4-0
2*: 7-8
3*: 1-0
$: +5,1*

One play for Friday:

2* Erzgebirge Aue -106 (Pinnacle)

I played this last night at -106. It has now fallen to -112 where I still think it has value. This game is overpriced as imo it should be in the -140 to -150 range.

These two teams have very opposing trends. While Aue has now won 5 games in a row, Koblenz is winless in their last 4. Aue is a traditionally strong home team, this year their home record is an impressive 5-1-1. If you read my thread last week you may remember that I stated that Aue is not a fifth place team and won't stay there for long. I still believe that as their winning streak is somewhat inexplicable for me. But the fact is that they have won these 5 games and have a lot of confidence right now. They will have great support from their fans again tonight and while I believe they are due for a loss, I simply can't imagine that it will be inflicted by a struggling Koblenz team. Bottom line is that -106 (or even -112 as it is currently) is too high.

I'll be back with the rest of my plays later tonight.

Bumipol · Dec 8, 2006

Nice start with the Aue winner. On to Saturday and Sunday:

3* Eintracht Frankfurt under 3 -102 (Pinnacle)

Bremen usually is an over team with their good offense. In this game however I see several aspects that point to a rather low scoring game.

First of all games between those two when played in Frankfurt have traditionally been low scoring. As far as Frankfurt goes, their best striker is missing with an injury and they will be very careful against this strong Bremen team.

The most important aspect to me is the fact that this looks like a typical letdown spot for Bremen after their midweek loss at Barcelona. I'm sure that they are highly disappointed to have missed this golden opportunity and expect them to be mentally fatigued as a consequence.

The total in this game is 3 with odds of almost even money, I really like this under.

2* 1. FC Nürnberg pk/+0,5 -116 (Pinnacle)

So Hamburg finally won a game again this Wednesday when they came from behind to beat Moscow. Am I impressed? No. Do I think this will be a turning point in their season? No.

They didn't play any better on Wednesday than they did in the games before. They got lucky with 2 late goals against a Moscow team that probably realized from the beginning that this was a meaningless game as Porto and Arsenal were gonna draw anyways. They are missing their best player in van der Vaart due a suspension.

All this doesn't point to a Hamburg win. Nürnberg is the better team and has only lost twice in 15 league games. The wrong team is favored here and I intend to take advantage of this.

2* Hansa Rostock -130 (Betfair)

I'm very impressed with this Rostock team and have no doubts that they will stay among the top teams all season and be back in Bundesliga 1 next year. They are especially strong at home (6-1-1) and are not showing any letdown signs.

On the other hand is an 1860 München team that is nothing special at all. They are still ranked relatively high mostly due their home performances but they simply don't impress me in any way.

Rostock is the superior team and should win this one in front of the home crowd. Odds aren't great at -130 but still provide value.

1* Greuther Fürth -110 (Interwetten)

While these teams currently share identical records Fürth is definitely the better of the two. I was surprised to see odds of -110 as I had expected something like -140. I'm therefore going with Fürth in this one but keeping it to a 1* play as they haven't exactly been the most reliable team in the past.

2* Werder Bremen Amateure pk -120 (Pinnacle)

Every time I read game reports about the young Bremen team they are being praised for their strong performances. They've been very good in their away games with impressive wins in Dresden and Lübeck.

They are facing a Wilhemshaven team that has been outplayed in many of their games this season and simply seems too weak for Regionalliga competition. They are second from last in the standings, are already trailing significantly and have shown first signs of resignation. As if this wasn't enough they are currently dealing with several injury problems.

Bremen is the much better team and should win this game. Playing the pick option will even save our money in the case of an unexpected draw.

Good luck to everyone!!

Taparosca · Dec 8, 2006

Tailing you on Frankfurt and Nurnberg, nice write ups as usual buddy!!! Lets make some cash for tomorrow!!!!

Bumipol · Dec 8, 2006

Hi Tapa,

always good to have you on my side. BOL!!

Bumipol · Dec 9, 2006

Hell of a start!!

2 goals in the first 4 minutes of the Frankfurt game!! Amazing!!

Taparosca · Dec 9, 2006

Not every time we win, dont worry!! Still looking forward to your picks!!

Duckstabber · Dec 9, 2006

I know I shouldn't be saying this after a game with 8 goals, but I actually liked your under 3 pick and tailed for a unit. (I didn't agree with the letdown theory though as I was on Werder myself.

You're doing a great job around here, Bumi - I enjoy reading your posts!

Bumipol · Dec 10, 2006

Thanks for the nice words Tapa and Duckstabber!! It's nice to see that my thoughts and ideas are appreciated in here!

I'm a little unlucky with my bet sizes right now. Since I started posting in here I'm 5-0 with my 1* plays but only 10-10 with the bigger bets. Despite going 3-2 this weekend I lost 1,34* mainly due to the loss in my 3* play. But I'm confident to get back on the winning side soon!

Let's take a quick look back at this weekends plays:

Much has been said about the Frankfurt under play. I can only repeat that I really liked this bet even though I have to admit that my expectations about Bremen coming out very flat in this game were certainly not justified. On the other hands it is simply a very unlucky turn of events to have 2 goals scored in the first 4 minutes of the game!

The play against Hamburg worked out for a half bet winner. Hamburg playing as weak as expected, Nürnberg even though not much better easily secured the draw they seemed to be satisfied with. As long as no changes are being made in Hamburg (which will probably happen during the Christmas break) I will confidently continue to bet against them.

In Bundesliga 2 Aue was an easy winner Friday even though they fell behind early. Fürth squeezed out the ugly 1-0 win I expected. Rostock was the only disappointment this weekend as they couldn't beat 1860 München at home. However no regrets here as I simply don't think much of 1860.

The Bremen Amateure game was postponed and is supposed to be replayed next weekend. We will have to wait if the circumstances and odds allow us to play it again then.

I wish everyone a successful week and will be back on Friday!!

Updated record:

YTD: 15-10
1*: 5-0
2*: 9-9
3*: 1-1
$: +3,76*

Taparosca · Dec 14, 2006

Any play or thoughts in tomorrows MONCHENGLADBACH- BOCHUM match?

Taparosca · Dec 15, 2006

Anything for tomorrow Bumipol?

Bumipol · Dec 15, 2006

Sorry Folks, I was on a business trip all week and just got back. Didn't have any chance to check your question tapa. Sorry!

I guess Bochum would have probably been a play today if I had had the time to carefully think about the games. But I was so busy today that I didn't play anything myself.

I'm looking over tomorrows card and should have a few plays shortly!